PIERO CAPS OFF SUMMER SPREE
We have a rare day off work here at Legion Towers. What better way to spend it than being your Arsenal oasis in the barren tumbleweed wasteland of the interlull.
We were planning on jumping right into our in-depth look at our first Champions League opponents, Athletic Bilbao, but we started to do a small segment on our latest signing, Hincapie, and it ended up longer than we expected, so Bilbao will have to wait.
So what of our new 23-year-old Ecuadorian?
He was signed from Leverkusen on an initial loan deal with an OPTION to purchase for £50m and plays as a left-sided centre half/left back hybrid.
We did tweet just before the signing was announced that this one perplexed us a little. Not as much as the Madueke one, but still. Don't get it twisted, we are not saying he is a bad player before he's even kicked a ball for us. Just that the signing was a bit weird. We explain in the points below why.
As with the Eze signing, we'll try and take a balanced view of the signing. We'll get the bad stuff out the way first.
THE BAD
1. For a centre half, he is what we describe as 'undersized', standing at 6 feet tall. The same height as Madueke for a reference point. This fact is reflected in his stats for last season, where he was only in the 58 percentile for aerial duels won. This is not so much of an issue when he plays full back, which brings us on to point 2.
2. Out of 45 games, he only started 9 at left wing back, ZERO as a 'natural full back'. So definitely more of a centre half, which brings us to point 3.
3. Under Alonso at Leverkusen, they exclusively played with a back 5 with Hincape featuring as the left side of the 3 centre halves. So he hasn't played in a back four in 2 years, either as a centre half or full back.
4. If we were going down the under-sized centre half/full back hybrid route, why didn't we move for the better (in our opinion) and cheaper Hato of Ajax, who eventually moved to Chelsea? Why not move for him early and get him integrated instead of a late deadline day deal? It's not like Kiwior seeking a move was some kind of late revelation. Everyone and their dog knew he was looking to move for first-team football.
5. The future fee is £50m large if we decide to pull the trigger on the option. which is a hefty amount of next year's budget spent on arguably a 6th choice centre half (Saliba, Gabriel, White, Mosquera, Calafiori) and 3rd choice left back (Calafiori, MLS)
THE GOOD
1. He is a great age at 23 with a wealth of experience. He was an invincible with Leverkusen, playing 26 times in their undefeated league-winning campaign. He has also amassed 46 caps for Ecuador and played in all 3 of their group stage games at the 2022 World Cup.
2. He adds flexibility to the squad. Yes, he will be down the pecking order, but if we are playing in a domestic cup and Arteta wants to rest the backline, then he can step in either at left centre half for Gabriel or left back for Calafiori or MLS. It's another strengthening of the squad that if we get a cluster of injuries (us? never!), then we have an international calibre backup to step into the fold.
3. He comes from good stock. Whether you are a Xabi Alonso fan or not, there is no denying that he likes his teams to play football, building out from the back with the ball along the ground. He has already said one of his best attributes is bringing the ball forward, so his style of play should suit us well.
4. His stats, as shown in the graphic below, in the Bundesliga last season vs other centre-backs for passing, progressive passing, and progressive carries all fall in the high percentiles, as do all his xG and xAG stats.
The numbers are telling us he is good at passing and running with the ball, but isn't great on the defensive side of things. Ideal for Burnley at The Carpet, but not so great at the Etihad.
Like any new player, we will have to wait and see how it plays out over the course of the season when it comes to game time. Does he take minutes away from MLS? Is he a fail-safe when Calafiori goes down with another inevitable, longer lay-off injury? Is he the next man up on the left side of central defence when Gabi at the Back needs a breather?
Will his game time be related to whether we sign him permanently or not, and I mean that from both sides. Will he want to sign for us if he hardly gets a look in, and conversely, would we want to spend that much on someone we barely used?
All will be revealed over the course of the season. One thing is for sure. Arteta couldn't go a whole transfer window without signing someone who can play left back. It's his thing.
We'll see you in a couple of days for the Champions League opponents countdown. One surprise omission from the squad announced today is no Gabi Jesus.
Maybe talks of his imminent comeback from injury were premature, or Arteta didn't want to put two games a week onto him straight out the gate. Either way, he didn't make it. You do feel his time at the club is coming to an end.
See you all soon Legion.