dycheing with danger
ARSENAL MUST BE WARY WHAT THE GINGE HAS COOKING
Happy matchday, Gooners, wherever in the world you are reading this.
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Just a quick note before starting.
As regular readers know, I normally preview the day before a game, but going forward, it will be released on game day. Seems more 'relevant' if I release it on the same day.
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Something else regular readers will note is we've gone for a bit of a different look. Not 100% decided if we are sticking with it for the longer term yet but we are always looking at ways to improve.
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VITAL STATISTICS
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OPPONENTS - N FOREST
VENUE - THE CITY GROUND
COMPETITION - PREMIER LEAGUE
DATE & TIME - SATURDAY 17TH JANUARY 2026, 5.30PM (UK TIME)
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​SETTING THE STAGE
The Forest game has several subplots.
1. It's the third game of our 4-game, 10-day road trip. How much of a factor will fatigue play?
2. It's the last stop on our six-game Redemption Tour of games we failed to win last season. So far, we have come out of it in good shape with 4 wins and 1 draw.
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3. Last time we met Forest was at The Carpet mid-September, and it was Big Ange's first game in charge. Man, that seems like a lifetime ago already. Now they have Sean Dyche in charge, a manager with a footballing philosophy not even on the same planet as the portly Aussie.
One thing is for sure: this game has DANGER DANGER vibes written all over it.
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Any time we come up against a side on the road, fighting for their Premiership survival, managed by a guy who absolutely hates our guts and doesn't even try to pretend otherwise, it gets my spidey sense tingling big time.
THE MOMENTUM METER
ARSENAL - W-W-D-W-W-W
Our form remains almost perfect over three different competitions.
One of the most pleasing aspects of our good form is the uptick in away results once again. We went through a period in Nov/Dec when it was in a downward spiral. It seems we made a concerted effort to improve it, and it's worked, thankfully.
FOREST - L-W-L-L-L-L
They definitely got a new manager bounce when Dyche first arrived, winning seven of his first twelve games with only the two defeats, with some notable scalps along the way like Porto and a 3-0 drubbing of Liverpool at Anfield.
Since pre-Christmas, things have taken a turn for the worse. Their only win since 22nd December was against West Ham, and as we all know, that is no kind of flex whatsoever.
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Things have almost reached critical mass stage already with last weekend's FA Cup exit on penalties at the hands of Welsh Hollywood FC, with Dyche (rightly?) throwing his fringe players under the bus post-match.
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Their form at the City Ground, in particular, has been poor: they lie 16th for home form, with only three wins, one draw, and six defeats from their ten games. This is already one more defeat than they had the whole of last season.
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They have the joint-second-worst attack, scoring only 12 home goals. Only West Ham and Wolves, the bottom two, have conceded more than their 17 goals against. They have kept only one clean sheet at home all season, against Leeds United.
​HISTORY BOOKS​
In the two Premier League Era spells before and after Forest's relegation in 98/99, our record there in the league is: played 8, won 4, lost 2, drawn 2.
We are just lucky they are out of the FA Cup. Although our league record there is respectable, they have knocked us out of the cup the last two times we were drawn away against them.
It's hard to look too much into our first meeting earlier in the season under Ange. It was his first game in charge, and he essentially told them to just go out and play so he could see what he had to work with. Dyche is cut from a completely different cloth.
Our game there last season ended 0-0, and I honestly can't remember too much about it, which tells you all you need to know about the kind of game it was.
​​BY THE NUMBERS
Top Goalscorer - Igor Jesus - 8 goals.
Although Jesus leads the goalscoring stats for Forest, only one of his eight goals has come in the league. Morgan Gibbs-White leads the league scoring with five.
Top Assists - Elliot Anderson - 4.
Again, this is across all competitions. Forest has struggled massively with creativity, a problem that has only worsened under Dyche and his pragmatic approach.
Late Goals - Forest have conceded almost as many goals after the 75-minute mark, with 12 (worst in PL), as we have all season, with 14. The late goal leakage has turned three potential home draws into late defeats.
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Set Piece FC - Forest have conceded thirteen goals from set plays, seven of them at home. Only Bournemouth have conceded more with fourteen. They rank in the bottom three in aerial duels won in their own penalty area.
FUN FACTS
1. If Forest lose this weekend, it will be the first time in over 100 years that they have lost 7 league games at home in a single season by mid-January.
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2. We have kept a clean sheet in our last three meetings with Forest across all competitions. If we do it again, it will be the first time in history we've managed four shutouts in a row against them.
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3. Sean Dyche has a notoriously tough time against us. In 20 career games, his teams have never scored more than once in a single match (W2, D4, L14).
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​KEY MATCHUP
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TROSSARD VS AINA
I love a full-back/winger match-up, and with Forest's Ola Aina at right-back, I feel we can get real joy against him.
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He pretty much can't defend, as the graph clearly shows. Maybe if he pulled his shorts up, he could run better, but that's just me being old-fashioned.
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He played left back one season when they came to the Emirates, if memory serves me right, and Saka gave him the roasting of his career. It was so bad that, in a later interview, Aina said Saka was the best player in the league.
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I really fancy Trossard to have a big day against him.
ONE TO WATCH
​It has to be Elliot Anderson. ​
He has firmly established himself as the heartbeat of this Forest side, with everything flowing through him.
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I highlighted his possession stats to emphasise this point, but I also wanted to highlight his defensive work. He epitomises what a modern-day #6 has become. Not only do you have to be good on the ball, but you also have to be responsible off it.
You can research pretty much every type of passing stat, and he is in the high green bar, 70th+ percentile. It's crazy.
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I genuinely think he has a terrific shot at making England's starting eleven in the World Cup.
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Sorry, Forest fans, but one thing is certain. He won't be at The City Ground next season. My money is on either City (dependent on their charges) or Liverpool as his next club.
THE PHYSIO ROOM
ARSENAL​​​​
Missing - Calafiori. Mosquera. Hincapie. Dowman.
Doubtful -
​Mikel was his usual cryptic self at his presser yesterday, hinting that a player might return. Judging by his comments earlier in the week about Cala and Mosquera still being weeks away, I can only assume he was talking about Hincapie, as we have never had an official update on the length of his injury. I am going with this is Arteta being Arteta, and he also misses out.
FOREST
​Missing - Wood, Victor.
Doubtful - Yates.
​PROJECTED ELEVEN
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Due to our brilliant Champions League form, we can afford to go hard lineup-wise tonight, then play the Portsmouth line-up away at Inter the following Tuesday.
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We are already guaranteed qualification to the knockout stage, so our two games against Inter and Kairat are essentially dead rubbers, aside from the advantages that come with a higher placing, like having the second leg at home, etc.
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So I am going with the same lineup as Stamford Bridge.​
I honestly cannot see a world where MLS starts at LB. I think Arteta has made up his mind that, until the return of Cala or Hincapie, Timber is the man there for now.
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Since his Bournemouth double, Declan Rice has had a couple of quieter outings by his high standards. Hopefully, he has a performance waiting for us tonight. His half-time tunnel spat with AirPod Albert has been resolved, according to Arteta. Wonder what it was all about?
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FINAL THOUGHTS
It's another tough road game, but then they all are, really.
The City Ground is one of the better atmospheres in the Premier League, with the whole Mull of Kintyre vibe going on pre-kickoff. I love having proper historical clubs like Forest in the league. It just feels right.
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Despite their woes at home, I expect it to be another nervy night, possibly another one of those hanging on to a slender lead late on type affairs. God, I hope not. My heart can't take much more of those, and we're only just past the halfway stage.
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I'll be back Sunday or Monday as usual for the debrief.
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See you then, Legion.​​​​
