CAFFEINE AND CANINES
GUNNERS TURN FOR HOME AS HALF WAY STAGE REACHED
Good afternoon, Legion. With our game tomorrow night against 'The Villa', we will have reached the halfway point in our season.
Quite why we play Villa for the second time but haven't played Bournemouth yet remains a mystery, but here we are.
Today is the quiet before the storm of another ninety minutes of inevitable cardiac-arrest football involving our beloved club.
It is especially quiet here at Legion Towers because my Better Half and DD have abandoned me once again. This time, they are driving a relative home on an eight-hour round trip.
Currently, the only sound apart from my noisy old laptop fan struggling to breathe is the whistling-snore of my faithful furry companion, Gooner (original, I know), our King Charles Cavalier.
I don't know if I've ever mentioned him on the site before. I probably have at some point. We got him three years ago, and he was supposed to be the lucky charm that saw us over the line. If we don't win the league this year, his furry, snoring, little butt is getting put up for adoption.
I look at him sometimes and think how nice it must be to have zero concept of duel win ratios, percentiles, tactical tweaks and Unai Emery's constant revenge missions against us. He's probably dreaming of squirrels, whereas I'm dreaming that Gabi at the Back starts and pockets Ollie Watkins.
When I try to explain inverting full backs and the like to him, he tilts his head, gives a slight huff/gruff, yawns, and then toddles off. That's better analysis than some Twitter tacticos, I suppose.
Sorry, I'm being harsh. I am overcaffeinated on coffee strong enough that it could start at centre half, and my palms are already sweating just thinking about tomorrow night. My only companion I can chat to about it (apart from you lot) would sell our three points for a slice of ham and not even feel bad. Cheers Gooner. Traitor.
SETTING THE STAGE
Villa, along with Bayern, may be our toughest test of the season so far, and I include City in that statement.
They are THE form team in England, equalling a record-breaking (for them) eleven straight wins across all comps, a record that has stood since 1914.
They are breathing down our necks like Gooner when he smells a bag of treats getting opened. Who would have thought that a home game against Villa at the halfway stage would end up being this massive? Especially after the dreadful start they had.
FORM BOOK (LEAGUE ONLY)
Our last five games, after our Brighton win, read four victories, one defeat, and you all know who the one defeat was against. Our home form remains dominant with that City draw our only blemish.
We all know Villas' form. WWWWW.
I spoke yesterday about them being xG cheating masters, and it really is quite incredible.
I won't bore you with too much of it, as I understand not everyone is an xG nerd. I said myself yesterday I don't think it's the be-all and end-all, but it does point to possible future trends.
So here goes.
Over their 11-game winning streak, they have scored 29 goals from an xG of 20. This 9-goal differential means they are scoring from difficult chances that teams usually miss and are being ultra clinical with the half-chances that come their way.
They aren't dominating games or peppering the net with 30 shots. While other teams (i.e., us) need a map, a compass, and a written invitation to score, they are being ruthlessly efficient in front of goal.
By comparison, in that 11-game stretch, our xG was 22.4, and we've scored 24, so we are pretty much tracking exactly as expected and sit top.
Villa, really, are a mathematical anomaly. Rather than sitting third and having us looking over our shoulder, they should really be mid-table.
There are also a couple of other factors that help break the xG argument.
1. They have 18 points from losing positions, which is the best in the Premier League.
2. They have scored 10 goals from outside the box, the most at this stage of the season in Premier League history. If they were to continue at their current rate, they would SMASH the 06/07 Chelsea's record of 23. Most teams score roughly 14% of their goals from outside the box. Villa sit at 34%.
As for xG helping with future trends, you would look at them and say, okay, to keep outperforming their xG, they would need to sustain what we just discussed above, i.e., can they keep coming from behind? Can they keep scoring long-distance goals? Can they keep being so ruthless in front of goal?
They have done it for eleven games now, but that's a lot of factors to keep going your way for another twenty (inc tomorrow).
HISTORY BOOKS
Since we are going around a second time, I'm not delving into the History Books as per our first match-up.
What I will focus on is the previous meeting this season.
We all remember the late, late scruffy AF goal that sent us to our second defeat of the season, 2-1. Do we remember how the game actually played out?
It was a pretty good spectacle with both teams having chances. More basketball and open than Arteta would have liked for sure. They had six shots on target, and we had eight. We had 53% possession. It was an even 50-50 game.
The big difference this time around is that we won't be going into the game with Hincapie and Timber at centre half, Merino (I think) up front, and Eze on the left wing.
KEY MATCHUP
Last time around, I had Saka vs Digne as my key matchup. Unai read my blog and switched Digne with Maatsen in the hope he would push Bukayo back the way. I'm not sure it worked, as I thought Saka had an excellent game and got our MOTM.
This time around, I am going with the other flank. Matty Cash(inski) is suspended (we'll get to team news later), and Villa's only other recognised right back, young Spaniard Andres Garcia, has been injury-plagued and only featured once all season, so I'm saying he's a no-go.
This leaves the option of either centre half, Lindelof or Konsa, moving over, which is unlikely, as they are also missing Pau Torres and were the starting pair at Chelsea. Their other option is midfielder Lamare Bogarde (Winston's nephew). Neither of these three choices fills me with fear, and I think it could be a night where Leo Trossard has a big say.
ONE TO WATCH
I know it's a bit of an obvious one, but I'm going with everyone's current favourite player from another team, Morgan Rogers.
Full disclosure, I have been banging on about him for quite a while. Arsenal Legion is ahead of the curve, my friends.
You want to know how good he has been this season?
Through balls - 93rd percentile. Assists - 81st percentile. Successful take-ons - 79th percentile. Progressive carries 72nd percentile. Shots/Goals ratio - 25th percentile in shots taken, 81st percentile in goals scored.
The downside to his game, and maybe not his fault, is Passes Attempted 13th percentile. Passes completed 18th percentile.
This means a couple of things. One is that he is a ball carrier, not a ball player. He's more Declan Rice than Martin Odegaard. You want someone to pick up the ball, carry it, and drive forward with it. He's your man.
It also means that 'Emery Ball' isn't about nice, pretty passing patterns. It's about getting the ball forward through either long balls or running with it. This explains his low passing numbers but high assists. He is laying off an assist at the end of a run, or he is already forward-involved in the play from a long ball and is assisting from the opposition's final third.
Hope that made sense, folks.
AVAILABILITY REPORT
Arteta didn't really say much regarding Brighton's omissions, Timber, Calafiori or Havertz. I think all three will be back, although I've been prophesying Kai the Guy's return for what seems like weeks now. We didn't lose anyone else from the 2-1 win (that we know of).
Villa have problems at the back with Pau Torres now injured, alongside long-term absentee Mings.
Throw in suspension to Villa Park goalscorer RB Matty Cash(inski) and defensive anchorman Kamara, and they are looking a little stretched.
Ross Barkley is also missing, injured, and forward Guessand is away to Afcon.
PROJECTED ELEVEN
It's hard to guess a starting lineup when Arteta guards injuries like nuclear codes. I get why. If we're not all sure, how the hell is Emery supposed to know?
Tbf I've been pretty good at getting these close, so let's see if I can keep my streak going.....
As I said in the Brighton preview, that is pretty much our strongest lineup. You can argue over a couple of positions, but at this moment in time, I think that's as good as it gets.
I have Calafiori returning (the word I heard was that his training 'injury' was an upset stomach). I have Gabi at the back, ahem, back. Why the hell not right? If he's fit, he plays, no question. Timber returns at RB, and for the first time since the Stadium of Light on the 8th November, our first-choice back five is intact.
I keep five of the six ahead of them the same as Brighton, with the only change being to move Declan Rice back to his usual eight role.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Never mind the points at stake. I cannot stand the thought of Emery mooching about the touchline on our patch while breaking a Villa record of consecutive wins and, at the same time, joining us on points. It doesn't sit right with me at all.
I am not one of those Unai revisionists who believe he didn't get a fair shake with us. I thought he was a bad hire from the get-go and was proven right. I still remember Watford away when we shipped 31 shots. To date, it is the highest we have ever conceded since the Premier League began tracking the stat. We didn't even concede that many when Man Utd blitzed us 8-2.
Title winners smack down rivals when given the chance. It's what separates the winners from the nearlys. We have a perfect opportunity to do just that on our own patch, where we are formidable. Villa have been riding a lucky but clinical high. Let's make sure, for once, that their xG and actual goals scored pair up, and both are low. Goodbye, Unai. Back to Birmingham with you. Thanks for coming.
Tomorrow, a huge night awaits. Gooner and I are psyched for it. I've told him that if we win, he gets the ham. If we lose, he starts getting called Unai. Hopefully for all our sakes, he manifests a victory.