MERRY AND BRIGHT(ON)
GUNNERS LOOK TO COME OUT FIRING POST CHRISTMAS
Happy Boxing Day GOONERS! It's that magical time of year when we are all about 60% body weight in turkey, and the other 40% is mince pies.
I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas Day. All that planning and anticipation, and it's over in the blink of an eye. Never mind, you have a full year ahead to plan for the next one.
SETTING THE STAGE
I didn't have time to review the Palace Carabo Cup game, but what a crazy night it turned out to be. I'm not spending time going over it, but the penalty shootout win means we have a two-legged semi-final against the shin kickers from the Bridge to 'look forward to'.
Yes, it's extra fixtures on a packed calendar, but I think the momentum we gained from going through outweighs the congestion at this point.
We are back to league duty in a rare 3pm Saturday kick-off at home to Brighton. I'm not typing Brighton and Hove Albion every single time, so I'm sticking with just plain old Brighton.
Is it a Mandela Effect thing, or was there always a full Boxing Day Calendar? There must be some reason why all but one have been shunted forward a day, but I can't for the life of me figure out why. I loved a good old traditional Boxing Day game.
FORM BOOK (LEAGUE ONLY)
With the win away at Everton, our league form over the last five games is looking strong: three wins, one draw, and one defeat. Anyone else still annoyed about that Villa result? It's been niggling away at me. Thankfully, we have a chance to put it right in our next home game when Emery's boys come to town.
As for Brighton, I said in one of my earlier pieces that they are one of those sides you never quite know what you're going to get. Their current form confirms this: one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five. They haven't had a win in the league in December and have only scored one goal in their previous three outings. Safe to say they aren't coming into this in the best shape.
As a unit, they perform as they do individually, if that makes sense? They have mercurial players like Rutter, Mitoma, and Minteh, who on their day are a handful, but lately they haven't had enough of 'those days'.
HISTORY BOOKS
The Seagulls, since returning to the Premier League in 2017, have given us more pain than standing on a Lego piece. Whether it's been Potter, De Zerbi, or now Hurzeler in charge, they have given us fits.
In the 16 games since their return to the top table, we are almost evenly split, with six wins in our favour, five losses and five draws.
At The CarpeT our record is even with three wins apiece and two draws. All three of our victories have been by the score of 2-0, maybe a good omen for tomorrow?
Last season ended 1-1, but I'm saying if it weren't for the never-seen-before or since Declan Rice's bonkers sending off, we would have taken all three points.
TRANSFER BUSINESS
Brighton tends not spend big in the market, but they do tend to spend smart, mostly on young emerging talents whom they then sell for huge profits. Smashing the transfer market has been their M.O since returning to the big time.
I'm not going to list all the big-money outgoings; you are all football fans and more than aware of the names.
Last summer was no different. Eighteen-year-old Greek Charalmapos Kostoulas arrived from Olympiakos for £35m—their costliest acquisition of the window.
After a breakout campaign in which he scored seven times in twenty-two league games and helped the Greek giants to a domestic double, he has struggled since arriving in English football. Understandably, for a youngster making such a move. He has appeared in the league only four times, all off the bench, and has scored once, against Manchester United.
Their second-biggest signing was twenty-four-year-old (ancient by Brighton standards) Maxim De Cuyper, a £20m arrival from Club Brugge. Played primarily at left back, he can operate anywhere on the left side. Despite not making that position his own domestically, he is Belgium's first choice and has scored an impressive four goals in his 15 caps. For his club, he has made nine appearances but has started only five, with one goal. It was, however, a huge injury-time winner at The Bridge, securing a 2-1 victory.
Other transfers were the twenty-one-year-old Italian centre-half Diego Coppola from Hellas Verona for £10m and the teenager Tom Watson from Sunderland, also for £10m. Coppola has made four starts in the league, and Watson has two substitute appearances to his name.
One outlier type signing was 27-year-old centre-half Boscagli from PSV on a free transfer. Most unlike them. He has only made one start so far, backing up the pairing of Dunk and Van Hecke.
In the sales department, they lost a couple of key players, but that's nothing new. Their transfer philosophy is built on buying young and cheap and selling for vast profits.
The latest one was Joao Pedro joining Chelsea for £60m. Bought from Watford in '23 for £30m, they made a profit of £15m per year on him. He was one whom the Moneyball, analytics crowd loved, being high in most metrics. I think he would have done well for us.
They doubled their money on Julio Enciso, who joined Strasbourg or Chelsea? Who knows in this multi-ownership world we live in? He went to the BlueCo Group for £20m regardless of where he ends up.
The rest of their sales may point to their Midas Touch in the transfer market slowing down somewhat.
AdIngra joined newly promoted Sunderland for £20m. He joined from the Danish side FC Nordjelland for £16m, so they only made a small profit on him.
Their third biggest sale was full back Estupinan, off to AC Meeeelan for roughly £15m - a break-even deal (they signed him from Villareal for approximately the same)
Valentin Barco, a highly touted youngster from Boca Juniors, never worked out. Bought for £10m, he was sold again to the BlueCo group for the same amount, another break-even deal.
A surprising one was the sale of Tariq Lamptey for only £5m plus unspecified add-ons to Fiorentina. Brighton clearly lost patience with his injury history. Such a shame, as he is/was lightning quick and was even touted for a move to The Emirates. His luck didn't change in Florence for 'I Viola', tearing his ACL 22 minutes into his debut.
KEY MATCHUP
The key area for me is our right flank, Brighton's left.
Bukayo will come up against either the Turk Kadioglu or the Belgian De Cuyper, or maybe both, depending on how Brighton line up.
Neither of them is great defensively. Both their games are way better suited to going the other way. I remember Kadioglu being heavily touted for a move to us after his impressive attacking displays in Euro 2024. He ended up at Brighton, where a nagging toe injury decimated his first season.
Can Saka push them back and make them defend? Neither is what I would call a natural low-block defender. Of course, being so forward-thinking, they might catch us on the break if possession breaks down, but that is the game in a nutshell.
I think they might go for Kadioglu as he is naturally right-footed, which is an advantage with Bukayo's propensity to cut in onto his stronger left side.
AVAILABILITY REPORT
Areteta was, as usual, and rightly so, coy about the returns of Gabi at the Back and Kai the Guy. Personally, I think Kai will be on the bench tomorrow, and Big Gabi will return for Villa the game after. The fact that both are so close is obviously terrific news.
There was no mention of any new injuries, and Martinelli should be good to go after taking a knock against Palace, which was such a shame as he was "Pegando Fogo" as they say.
There was weirdly no mention of Hincapie? He missed the Palace game with a shoulder injury he picked up against Everton. Different rumours are doing the rounds: he played the entire game with it dislocated, while others say it was just a knock and he will be fine. Guess we'll find out tomorrow at 3pm.
If he doesn't make it then MLS keeps his place.
For Brighton, ageless talisman Wellbeck is hopeful of a return from injury. They haven't found the net in the previous two games he missed. Defensive mainstay van Hecke should also return.
Dunk and Gomez return after suspension, while midfielder Wieffer will be a late call.
Long-term ACL casualties Webster and Tzimas miss out, as does March, who underwent knee surgery.
£100m Man Utd transfer target (pffffffffffft) Baleba is away to Afcon with Cameroon.
PROJECTED ELEVEN
My guess at the starting lineup is below. I've been pretty good at calling these, or at least getting close. Let's see if I can maintain my hot streak tomorrow.
I have Arteta rocking his strongest available line-up, knowing full well the problems Brighton have created in the past.
Eight players make their return. Raya, Hincapie, Zubi, Odegaard, Rice, Saka, Gyokeres and Trossard all come back into the lineup. Hopefully the law of the ex works in our favour for once and VG14 and Leo both score against their former club.
I do have a tweak: Hincapie and Calafiori swap, with Arteta realising what the hell took him so long to start the Italian in the position he plays for his national team.
I have said previously, but if you put Gabi at the Back in that line-up with Calafiori returning to left back, that might be our most potent lineup. Yes, you could soon have Havertz for Gyokeres or Eze for Odegaard; these are arguments made almost daily, depending on personal preference.
FINAL THOUGHTS
We have to get out of the blocks fast post-Christmas—no turkey hangover.
The games are coming pretty much every three days, and we have to get our Pac-Man on and munch as many points as we can in that short space of time. Yes, City have hit a run, but they have pretty much been all fodder fixtures. I am STILL unconvinced about them. Let's see how their season goes if Haaland gets injured. Hey, they'll sign Semenyo and carry on regardless. It's what they do.
Not sure whether I will be around to review the game on Sunday. I only really got this bonus blog out because my better half and DD have abandoned me to go shopping/cinema, so I thought I'd put my spare time to good use.
Enjoy the game and COYG!