REDEMPTION TOUR RETURNS
PIVOTAL STRETCH STARTS ON MERSEYSIDE
The weekend has landed, Legion!
I appreciate you dropping by the site even when life is moving at full tilt this time of year.
Is it just me, or is everyone else dashing through December, gasping for breath?
It’s the one time of year where real life mirrors the football calendar, what with the sheer relentlessness of it all. Yet there's a certain thrill to the madness that makes it all the more special.
We love this time of year here at Arsenal Legion.
SETTING THE STAGE
Our next six league games get us back on the road for another Redemption Tour.
Everton (A), Brighton (H), Villa (H), Bournemouth (A), Liverpool (H), and Forest (A) are all fixtures from last year we failed to win, drawing five and losing one.
On a similar Redemption Tour earlier in the season, we emerged with four wins from four against Newcastle (A), West Ham (H), Fulham (A), and Palace (H). All teams we failed to beat the previous season.
Our aim over this six-game period, starting tomorrow and running through mid-January, is to secure roughly 15 of the 18 points available. I would call that a Champions pace. It looks like City are hitting top gear so nothing less will do (do we call Villa title challengers yet?)
If we are truly serious about lifting the league trophy, we must approach this run of fixtures with guts and will, while not forgetting to play good football. Wins come when both go hand in hand. As they (whoever they are?) always say, you can’t win the league at Christmas, but you can definitely lose it.
FORM BOOK (league only)
After our dramatic late show against Wolves, you might look at the three wins, a draw, and a defeat from our last five matches and think all is well. But let's be honest, we haven't found our rhythm since the memorable duels with the Spuds and Bayern. Those performances, those atmospheres, were electric, high points that we have since failed to recapture.
Since those two games, we failed to beat 10-man Chelsea, and zombied our way through the Brentford 2-0 win. We followed that with the late defeat at Villa, which stung, then needed a heady mix of grit and fortune to climb out of a deep hole against Wolves.
This pattern can't continue if we're serious about contending. Tomorrow, we need to shake off the malaise and bring a fresh approach packed with energy and focus. If we show up tomorrow night with the same sluggishness, Everton—short-handed or not—will fancy their chances of turning us over.
The scousers' form over their last five games has been consistently inconsistent, with three wins and two defeats. Their wins include getting three points at Old Trafford with 10 men, beating Bournemouth away, and battering Forest at home. Their defeats, however, were a 4-1 home loss to Newcastle and, last time out, a 2-0 away loss at Chelsea.
In their first season at their new home, the 52,700-capacity 'Hill Dickinson Stadium', they have been strong, with five wins, two draws, and two defeats, and a goal aggregate of 13-9. Most of the goals against at home have come in two games, the previously mentioned 4-1 loss to Newcastle and a 3-0 defeat by The Spuds.
We’re the first of the so-called ‘big boys’ to roll into town, so you can bet their fans will be buzzing. As if they ever need an excuse to crank up the noise. Wenger always rated Everton's away venue as the toughest, especially at night. I wonder how the new stadium compares in terms of atmosphere?
HISTORY BOOKS
Because we are two sides who have spent most of our time in the English top flight (neither has been relegated in the EPL era), it is one of the most frequently contested games in English history.
We've been clashing swords since 1905, meeting 225 times.
From this historical rivalry, one telling insight emerges: we have averaged fewer than 1.5 goals per game away to Everton since 2000, underscoring the challenge that lies ahead.
In the Premier League era, we've met 66 times in total. We've won 38, Everton 12, with 16 draws.
We have only won once there, in the last seven years, that victory coming a couple of seasons ago in a 1-0 win thanks to a Trossard goal. Last season, the points were shared 1-1, with our goal coming from Trossard again.
We haven't scored more than one goal there since the 17/18 season, when we won 5-2.
TRANSFER BUSINESS
You could argue that Everton did their best piece of transfer business in the last January transfer window, namely securing David Moyes's return.
When he took over exactly halfway through the season, they were 16th, one point above the relegation zone with 17 points from 57. By season's end, having taken almost double the points tally, with 31 points from 57, they ended 13th, a massive 23 points clear of the relegation zone.
Hounded out of East London by delusional West Ham fans, he was Everton's saviour in their hour of need. As of today, Everton sit 9th while West Ham are 18th and in the relegation zone.
What’s perhaps most surprising is how high they sit in the table, given that not all of their summer signings have truly exploded onto the scene—well, with one notable exception.
Jack Grealish, being that guy. Unshackled from Manchester City’s rigid tactics, he looks like the player he was at Villa. Playing with total managerial backing, he has two goals and four assists to his name so far.
With him, though, as we all know, it's not just the goal involvements. It's the constant winning of free kicks (over three a game), the progressive ball carrying (five a game), plus all the intangibles he brings. Both his goals were late-game winners.
The loan, which included paying a chunk of his sky-high wages, cost Everton between £12m and £15m. So far, it looks like money well spent. The real headache comes in the summer, when they’ll need to rustle up £50m to make it permanent—and Grealish will have to decide just how much dough he’s willing to leave on the table to stay.
Our guess? He winds up back at Villa Park, especially if they can offer Champions League football.
Their splashiest signing fee-wise was nineteen-year-old Tyler Dibling, a young Southampton winger whom they hope will be Anthony Gordon 2.0. After The Saints played hardball, he eventually arrived for £35m (£42m with add-ons) and a 20% sell-on clause. It made him their second-most expensive signing ever, behind Gylfi Sigurdsson. So far, he has made one start in the league with a further six appearances from the bench. He has zero goal involvements.
Another big (literally) summer signing was 6ft 5in, striker Thierno Barry, who came the Nicolas Jackson route via the Yellow Submarines, Villarreal, for £27m (£30 with add-ons) and a 10% sell-on clause. Everton scouts were swayed by his last season in Spain, where, with 11 goals, he was La Liga's top scorer for players aged 22 and under (he's since turned 23)
Plenty of eyebrows were raised at this transfer, especially after Chelsea’s almost identical Nicolas Jackson experiment. Both Barry and Jackson were seen as high-upside, built for direct, counter-attacking football—fast, strong, but still rough around the edges.
Going for the young, unpolished profile was even more surprising, given that they let Calvert-Lewin go, leaving only Barry and one other recognised striker, Beto, at the club.
Barry, in 16 league appearances (nine starts and seven as a substitute), has one goal, breaking his duck in their last home game vs Forest. He does, however, give them a direct out ball when they want to go long. He is in the 98 percentile for aerial duels won, averaging almost 7 per 90.
As for Beto, he’s a centre forward who has averaged a goal every six games since signing, so it’s little wonder they’re tied for the third-worst attack in the league with just eighteen goals. Only Wolves and Forest have found the net less often.
Their third major signing was Dewsbury Hall from Chelsea for £25m (£28m with add-ons). It would be fair to say this signing so far has hit.
Many observers considered him to have not received a fair shake at the Bridge. He appeared in only 13 league games. He had more Europa Conference appearances than league ones.
He’s starting to look at home on Merseyside, with four goals and two assists in 15 games—enough to make him the Toffees’ top league scorer. He’s a midfield Swiss Army knife type, but the number 10 role seems to suit him best. Luckily for us he has been ruled out.
Their final signing of note was a curious one in Carlos Alcaraz. Everton is his fifth club in five years. After joining Brazilian side Flamengo for a club-record fee of £16m in the summer of 2024, he was loaned to Everton in the subsequent winter window and has since made his move permanent for £12.5m
The Brazilian side's inability to guarantee him a regular starting spot led to the player's frustration, and he was surprisingly allowed to leave for a £3.5m loss.
When it came to departures, Everton joined the summer trend and cleared out the ‘dead wood’ draining the wage bill. Out the door went Calvert-Lewin, Doucoure, Holgate, Mangala, Harrison, Young, and Begovic—all on frees.
Somehow, they convinced Glasgow Rangers to shell out £7m for young striker Chermiti, who never even scored for them. Another exit saw Arsenal cult hero Neal Maupay head to Marseille, where he linked up with Mason Greenwood. Now there's a duo to hate-watch.
KEY MATCHUPS
Initially, I had Grealish vs Timber circled as the key battle. But with rumours that Grealish was doubtful but probable, I didn't want to take the risk, so it’s time for a new matchup to take centre stage.
Much like an ice hockey game, this one could come down to a goalkeeping duel.
Yes, we can all agree that Pickford is an annoying, loudmouth, bell-end, but credit where it’s due—he’s a top-class keeper and England’s number one for a reason. His heroics at Old Trafford practically won them the match. If we want the points, we have to find a way past him.
Meanwhile, Raya will likely have his own moments in the spotlight—three or four big saves at key times could be the difference. Whether it’s 0-0, or we’re ahead, or clinging to a slender lead, he’ll need to deliver when it matters most.
Why does the clean sheet matter so much? History shows we rarely score more than once on their home patch. Raya might need to (sorry for more USA sports talk) ‘pitch a shutout’ if we’re to come away with the win.
No pressure at all, David, my old son.
ONE TO WATCH
I was going with Dewsbury-Hall, but, like Grealish, given his injury doubts, I've changed it.
Instead, I’m spotlighting a whole unit rather than a lone player.
With Everton’s creative spark plugs missing, their best shot at a goal probably comes from a set piece. Nearly a third of their goals have come from long throws or dead balls.
Tarkowski’s trademark back-post run, a Burnley classic, is now a staple for Everton. Keane is a menace in the air, and Jake O’Brien, a towering 6’6” centre-back moonlighting at right-back, adds even more aerial threat.
All three are genuine threats. We’ll need to be laser-focused whenever we’re facing a set piece.
AVAILABILITY REPORT
Calafiori returns from suspension, but Ben White is now out for at least a few weeks with a hamstring injury. Our physio room might as well have a revolving door at this point.
Still no sign of Gabi at the Back or Kai the Guy, but Arteta seemed to hint today at his presser that they could both be back in the very near future, which would be great news, obviously.
Mosquera and Dowman are furthest away from a return. Neither has even been mentioned in dispatches.
Zubi has been MIA in training for a couple of days, but Arteta said no problem, just down to rest and load management. So I fully expect Norgaard to start! Kidding. Hopefully Zubi makes it as he would be a huge miss.
Confirmed missing for The Toffees are two AFCON call-ups, Gana Gueye and Ndiaye. Arguably, their best defender,
Branthwaite has been out all season with a hamstring problem and won't be available until at least the end of January.
Another hamstring victim, veteran full-back Seamus Coleman, is also confirmed out.
Their two big question marks were over Grealish and Dewsbury-Hall—both also battling hamstring issues. Seriously, what’s with all the hamstring drama this season? Dewsbury-Hall has been confirmed out, but Grealish will make it. Typical.
With the Grealish news, only two players will start from their midfield five that began at Stamford Bridge: Gueye, Ndiaye, and Dewsbury-Hall are all out, with Garner and Grealish remaining.
PROJECTED ELEVEN
With our injury list, you’d think predicting the line-up would be a breeze. Somehow, it’s still a total guessing game.
I have, however, made my usual attempt below.
The defence, for now, because of the multitude of injuries, I think, picks itself.
I have nearly everyone shuffling over with Calafiori returning to the side at LB, which moves Hincapie over to CB and, in turn, moves Timber to his usual RB role.
Trossard returns at LW. A no-brainer. He's arguably been our best player all year, looked great off the bench against Wolves, plus has scored in his last two visits to Everton, so history is on his side.
For my last change, I have Odegaard replacing Eze.
Not just due to Eze's recent lacklustre performances, but as I've alluded to previously, I'm not sure, especially after Villa, that Arteta trusts him defensively in tough away games. Everton most definitely falls into that category.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Everton game might just be our most important of the season.
At a venue we've historically struggled at, come kick-off time, we might have lost top spot to City, so that's psychologically tough to deal with. It's certainly not the type of game that we can go into feeling sorry for ourselves, though. We have to be able to block that stuff out and look at the bigger picture. If we win, it sets us up on a high note going into the crazy Christmas calendar.
If indeed Grealish and Dewsbury-Hall don't make it, we won't have a better chance to get the three points. But in the end, no matter what lineup we face, we have to look at ourselves first.
If we play as we did away to Newcastle, we will win reasonably comfortably. If we play as we did against Wolves, then we're in for a hard night's work.
Enjoy the game, Legion, and I'll be back for the review prob Monday, as Sunday I have Christmas stuff going on (haven't we all).
See you then.