GUT PUNCH TO GUT CHECK

The picture that says a thousand words.

 

OPENING THOUGHTS

It's 24 hours after our infuriatingly avoidable last-kick-of-the-ball defeat to Villa, and I'm still raging at the loss and the manner of it.

 

It was supposed to be a statement game. A defining moment in a season where you go to a red-hot rival without being at full strength and show the mettle of champions and somehow, someway get the win over the line. I honestly thought that if we achieved it, we would go on and win the league. That's how pivotal the moment felt.

 

What we got instead was a Gut-Punch that needs to be the catalyst for a Gut-Check. The players have to realise it's time to lace their big boy boots on before it's too late.

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LINEUPS

The starting eleven was always going to be hard to predict. Nobody had the first clue who was fit and who wasn't. None of the 'days away' guys started, although Trossard made the bench. As predicted, Declan talked his sore calf into not hurting anymore. Merino kept his place up top, and it was Eze who got the left wing berth.

 

For Villa, Emery obviously reads Arsenal Legion as he didn't fancy the Digne vs Saka match-up we wanted and went with the pacier, more attack-minded Maatsen with the idea of pushing Bukayo back the other way. The rest of their line-up was as predicted.

 

TRANSFER BUSINESS

The match itself could be cut into three segments.

 

Segment one was the first half, where we didn't play great. We didn't play awful, but we weren't great. Going in at the break honours even felt fair, but we ended up going in a goal behind due to Merino easily losing possession and Eze sleeping at the back post for Matty Cash to, ahem, cash in. Neither player reappeared for the second half.

 

Segment two was 20/25 minutes after the restart, where we got the equaliser through Trossard (again ole ole), who then had to depart the scene swiftly, with one can only assume a recurrence of his injury. We looked the more likely of the two to go and win it at this stage.

 

Segment three was the latter part of the game from 65/70 onwards, where we just completely ran out of gas. We'll touch on why in the next segment, "General Observations". In the 96th minute, Hincapie, who had an excellent game alongside Timber, could have done countless things with the ball at his feet in our box, miscontrolled it out for a throw-in, and the rest is history.

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GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

I don't want to be the blog that lumps on everyone and everything whenever a result doesn't go our way. I came off Twitter/X post-match as some of the 'fan' observations were getting ridiculous. From calling for Arteta's head, labelling him" useless", to slaughtering Saka for "losing the ball and laughing all the time". Arsenal Twitter/X is truly toxic after a loss like no other fanbase.

 

However, there are a few observations I've had that don't stem from yesterday's game; I've been on them for a while. 

 

Firstly, let's do a few individual player takes. Before you click off the site, I'm not butchering players or laying blame for the defeat on any particular individual here for the sake of it. I'm not being hypocritical. Bear with me.

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First off is Eze. In our signing profile piece, Eze-lectric (click to read), we had this to say on the negative aspects of the signing: "his defensive stats in every category rank in the lower 50 percentiles. He's a one-way luxury player who will be great at home against low blocks, but on the road with our backs to the wall, he'll be a defensive liability".

 

Tell us we're wrong. In six home games, he has four goals and two assists. Seven away games, one assist.

 

Bullied out of it at Stamford Bridge, sleeping for a goal yesterday and hooked at half time. Yet at home, the winner vs his old club Palace and a hat-trick vs the Spuds. Again, we're not slaughtering the guy; he is pretty much being the player I thought he would be when we bought him. There is no way I would start him at Everton. Simple as that.

 

Next up, and we will be a little bit harsher here, is Noni Madueke. We've labelled him already this season as the 'English Martinelli'. I think, on reflection, I was being harsh on Gabi. For our £50m so far, we've had a goal against Bayern and a good first half vs Forest, who had THE WORST  left back I've seen all season in Morato, a centre back woefully out of his depth impersonating a full back.

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So his stats, for comparison purposes, throughout his career, are: 

 

In his 152 career games for PSV, Chelsea and us, he has averaged a goal every 4.75 games and an assist every 8.4 games. At that rate, even if he played all 38 league games for us, the best output you could expect is roughly seven goals and five assists. For an attacker that we forked out £50m for, in my humble opinion, we really didn't need; those numbers are pretty awful. Arteta pushed for his signing. This is why he should leave the player signings to Berta, who clearly knows what he is doing.

 

I'm not going to bore you with more stats on percentiles, etc but if you check the numbers, you'll see a low football-IQ player with poor decision-making and even poorer execution. He had his best-ever season last year, finishing with 7 goals and 3 assists in 32 league appearances. Guess what that works out at? Yes, a goal every 4.5 games and an assist every 10.6 games, pretty much his career average.

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Areteta was banking on a soon-to-be 24-year-old suddenly developing elite traits he has never shown in his career to this point. Again, not the players fault. We are getting exactly the player we knew he was when we signed him. Our prediction? In two years, he will be at Palace or Fulham, averaging about the same or fewer stats than he has up until now.
 

Next up is Arteta and his subs. There were a few reasons why, after the hour mark, we fell off the game entirely and could barely get out of our half. 

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Firstly, his blatant disregard for White, Rice and Odegaard's fitness on Wednesday night came back to bite him yesterday. That had zero left in the tank. Villa ploughed their way through the centre of the park in the latter stages, time and time again, because our legs had gone.

 

Where was Norgaard to replace Rice? Where was Nwaneri to replace Odegaard? If he doesn't fancy these guys, then why are they part of the squad? Why did he sign Norgaard, a Danish international and ex-Brentford captain who is defensively responsible? Why not throw on Nwaneri for Odegaard if he's as special a talent as we keep hearing?

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Which brings me to my next point.

 

Instead of doing the sensible thing and taking off Rice or Odegaard, he hauls off, clearly unhappy at being replaced, Saka. He wasn't looking fatigued, was arguably our biggest threat, and replaced him with Madueke. Was he worried that the captain, who had never received a red card in his Arsenal career, was going to get sent off after picking up a booking? Read the room. The ref yesterday was excellent and was NEVER sending anyone off, let alone our captain. 

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In hauling him off, we lost our best get-out, our best player at receiving the ball, keeping possession, and moving us up the park. He's our best outlet EVERY SINGLE GAME. It meant we were hemmed in for the fifteen minutes that ultimately remained.

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Which brings us nicely to our final point. That is Viktor Gyokeres. He really is a curious case study. Built like a Swedish powerlifter, he is, in fact, terrible in duels and holding the ball up and securing possession. He got rag-dolled all second half by Ezri Konsa. Yes, Ezri Konsa. When he did secure possession, he lost it six times. With our main attacking outlet, Saka, off and the wide players being Martinelli and Madueke, it was vital for VK to get hold of the ball and drag us up the pitch, but he was unable to do so.

 

Again, though, not his fault. That's not the player he is. That's not the player we signed. In Portugal, where the general play isn't as physical, and the defenders aren't as strong or touch-tight, he had a duel win rate of 49%. What was he best at in the league? Runs in behind, averaging almost six a game, top in the league. For us? 4.2 runs in behind per 90, among the fifth most in the league. So again, not Viktor's fault. He is performing exactly like the player we bought.

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To summarise, we bought three players this summer and all of them are performing to type. We knew what we were getting, so I don't blame them as such. Eze isn't suddenly going to be responsible defensively on the road, but you want a low block dismantled at The Carpet, he's your guy. Madueke isn't suddenly going to churn out Saka numbers and performances, and Viktor isn't going to bully defenders, but he will run in behind.

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WHAT IT MEANS

What the defeat means is that big bad City are now only two points behind us, and Pep wasted no time gloating in the press about 'been there done that' when it comes to title races, ie cranking up the pressure. Villa are lurking in third, only three points off the pace.

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Pressure is mounting, and the 'bottle job' rooftop shouters are already in full voice. The boys need to block out the noise and sort out the away form and sharpish.

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HONOURABLE MENTIONS

We thought Timber and Hincapie held the fort down at the back superbly. The confidence bereft Watkins was one-on-one against them on numerous occasions, but they managed to block the shots from reaching goal. Rice tried his damnest again, but his legs collapsed around the 70-minute mark, and for him, energy and getting around the pitch are what his game is all about. He had already saved us twice with lung-bursting runs to get in front of goal-bound shots.

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Our Man of the Match Award goes to ...