HEROES VS VILLANS
GUNNERS LOOK TO HALT RED HOT VILLA
Happy weekend, LEGIONNAIRES. Much like last Friday, I have been up for 4 hours and am only now starting the blog. I seriously need to get better at time management.
I have coffee in hand, Cracker Barrel imported blend from the States (ie I smuggled it back in my suitcase), so I am now caffeine-fuelled and ready to go.
As you can see, I have had another fiddle with the site layout. I don't like to keep things the same for too long. Websites can stale real quick.
I have my usual colour theme of the home side (so half the season it's good old red and white), but have tweaked the text pages to a nice eye-friendly ivory colour (it's so subtle you won't even notice). It's a bit easier on the old peepers than bright white staring back at you. Hope you all like it.
SETTING THE STAGE
Tomorrow is going to be arguably one of the most challenging games of the season. Villa are coming in red hot, only six points behind us, and will be looking to continue their surge at Villa Park in the lunchtime kick-off slot tomorrow.
As briefly mentioned at the tail end of our Brentford review, Villa have an unhealthy hatred for us, similar to Newcastle's. It's frankly a bit cringe and weird.
It all started when they (supposedly) beat us to the signing of Emi Buendia. They then started all their Billy Big Bollocks stuff about how much bigger a club they were than us and how they were going to take ESR off her hands too (which never happened), because he wanted to play for a 'big club'. As I said, all a bit cringe and weird.
They then signed everyone's favourite human being, Emi Martinez, got in Unai Emery as boss, and it all seemed to add fuel to their sad little bonfire of insecurity. Our very public interest in Ollie Watkins last January, which they welcomed like a dose of winter flu, clearly didn't help relations.
Just so we're clear. Like Newcastle, this 'rivalry' is as one-sided as single-player table tennis.
LEAGUE FORM BOOK
They had a bizarre start to the season, when they went winless in their first five games (3 draws, 2 defeats) and only scored one goal against ten-man Sunderland.
Since then, they have won eight of their last nine, including victories against City, Bournemouth, and away at Elland Road and the Amex, some really tough teams/venues.
They sit at the top of the form table and are strong at home with five wins, one draw and one defeat at Villa Park so far. Their only defeat came at the hands of Palace back in late October.
They don't score many goals at home. In their seven home league fixtures, they have netted only 11 (seven fewer than us), which is the second-worst in the top ten, behind only Bournemouth. They are, however, strong defensively, conceding only 5, which is joint-second best in the top ten, behind, yes, us, who have conceded only the two.
Their top league scorer is Dutch wide man/striker Donyell Malan with four. Next up are Buendia, Watkins and Rogers with three apiece. They have really struggled in the goals department. Guys like John McGinn have only scored one league goal so far this season. Hopefully, this trend continues tomorrow.
As for our away form, we are second best in the league, surprisingly, behind the Spuds. We have only been beaten once on our travels (Anfield bleurgh) and keep things tight defensively, conceding only five. We tend not to score a ton away from The CarpeT netting only 9 in our seven away days.
If I were a betting man, the stats suggest it's a low-scoring affair with chances at a premium.
HISTORY BOOKS
We have a strong historical record in the league at Villa Park. We have won 15 times there, the joint-most wins we have recorded at any away ground since the Premier League's inception. The other venue is Selhurst Park.
In more recent meetings, the honours have been pretty much even. In our last five visits, we've won 3 and lost two. Last season, we won 2-0, with goals from Trossard and Partey.
The most memorable recent game was in 2023. With the scores tied at 2-2 and deep into stoppage time, Jorginho's long-range blast hit the bar and bounced off Emi Martinez's head and in. Martinelli added another late on, and we won 4-2. Magical.
TRANSFER BUSINESS
I'm no Director of Football here at Arsenal Legion, but Villas' transfer business left me completely underwhelmed during the summer.
In fairness to them, they were under the gun big time with FFP and SCR, and when you look at things neutrally, Emery is doing a pretty fantastic job with this group.
Their biggest signing was winger Evan Guessand, Nice's player of the year, for approximately. £25m- £30m. It would be an understatement to say he has underwhelmed so far, with no goal contributions in his 10 league appearances (5 starts, 5 as a sub).
Another Ligue Ugh recruit was made with veteran goalkeeper Marco Bizot arriving from Stade Brestois, who we might see tomorrow (more on that in the Injury Report)
They added youth in the form of 19-year-old Turkish defender Yasin Ozcan for £7m from Kasimpasa and immediately loaned him out to Anderlecht. They signed 20-year-old Modou Keba Cisse, another defender, for £5m from Austrian LASK Linz, where he will remain on loan for the season. They rounded off their youth project with the free transfer of young Dutch attacker Zépiqueno Redmond from Feyenoord and again, loaned him straight away to English Championship side Huddersfield Town.
They added veteran experience in the free transfer of ex-Man Utd defender Viktor Lindelof, who has made three league appearances so far.
They gave ANOTHER chance to Jadon Sancho, which is where football clubs sometimes drive me mad. I mean, you're under the gun financially, and you pay a waste of talent like Sancho £160k/week to stink the joint out on top of the £5m loan fee you had to fork out. For the record, he has made six substitute appearances and has yet to register a goal contribution. Nothing screams financial prudence like paying a fortune for a guy with no heart or love for the game. Madness.
They also have another disastrous EPL loan with Liverpool's Harvey Elliot. He made four appearances at the start of the season but hasn't been seen since September! The likelihood of Villa fans seeing much more of him is pretty slim as they are on the hook for £35m large if he makes ten appearances—another bonkers loan move.
Outgoing wise, they did well to keep the core of their squad together. Jacob Ramsey was the one eventually sacrificed to the financial gods with a £40m+ move to Newcastle. They shifted Leon Bailey off the wage bill with a loan move to Serie A's Roma, and Belgian Dendoncker left on a free to Oviedo. Apart from that, they kept their core together.
It will be interesting to see what moves they make in January, both outgoing and incoming.
KEY MATCHUPS
Two key matchups in my mind will go a long way to determining the outcome.
First up, and maybe most important, is the Morgan Rogers vs Zubimendi battle.
I think Rogers is a terrific talent who will go for crazy money in the next couple of seasons. He has the lot.
He is big, physical, strong, but has skill and dribbling ability to match, with an eye for goal. He reminds me of a more powerful version of Yaya Toure.
If Zubi can shield in front of him and stop the supply line, then it forces him to drop deeper and is less effective, making those forceful runs 60 yards from our goal rather than 30.
The other duel is on our right side with Saka against Lucas Digne. Bukayo has a decent record at Villa Park with two goals and an assist since 2022. I wouldn't consider Digne an elite full-back by any measure, so I feel with Saka and Timber/White, this is an area we can get some joy from.
INJURY REPORT/SUSPENSIONS
Every week since the start of the season, it seems like we are waiting with bated breath on Arteta's pre-match pressers to see who is fit and who isn't. This week is no different.
We got, understandably, zero answers from the gaffer on the fitness of Rice, Trossard and Saliba. Look below to see our projected eleven image and the thoughts behind it.
What I will say is our two fixtures after Villa are Brugge away in the Champions League and awful Wolves at The Carpet. Both those games look ripe for rotation. Play our big guys even though maybe not 100% at Villa, then give them the next two games off. Makes sense?
As for Villa, the uber-annoying Tyrone Mings is sidelined, as is Ross Barkley. Emi Martinez is highly doubtful after straining his back during Villa's warm-up for the midweek match at Brighton (ahh diddums). My heart bleeds.
PROJECTED ELEVEN
In a starting eleven that's almost impossible to guess, I have gone with both of the 'day to day' guys, Leo and Wilo, being back and replacing the stricken Mosquera and Martinelli. Declan, being Declan, also makes it after staring down at his stricken calf and telling it "'ave a word".
Other changes from Wednesday night see the return of Timber and Eze for White and Odegaard because two games in such a short space of time isn't quite where they are at yet.
FINAL THOUGHTS
It's the kind of game where you usually would say a point wouldn't be the worst result in the world. There are two problems with that train of thought.
First off, Man City are getting dangerously close to us, so single points are not quite cutting it at the moment. Yes, Peps mob aren't playing great, especially defensively, but they're still scraping dubs.
Secondly, if we draw, it means three away games without a win and 3 points on the road from our last 9 points available. It starts to look like a trend. The sooner we get back to winning ways on the road, the better.
A tough day ahead awaits, no doubt, but what a huge psychological boost it would be for the boys if they could pull off the win.
See you either Sunday or Monday for the recap.
Enjoy the game.