STING OPERATION
GUNNERS AIM TO AVOID SLIP UP AGAINST BRENTFORD SWARM
Good Evening, GOONERS. Another round of midweek fixtures is upon us, but this time it's domestic, not European that we have to navigate.
SETTING THE STAGE
After our ultimately disappointing outing at the end of a tough week last Sunday, we don't have to wait long to make amends as Keith Andrews 'The Bees' Brentford come to The Carpet.
We currently sit top five points clear of City, who play at the Cottage tonight, so the gap could be cut to just two come our kick off.
As for Brentford, Irishman Andrews has probably got them punching above their weight, sitting tenth, considering he's new at the helm and they sold both their best attacking players (we discuss that in the Transfer Business section further down).
Their away form is awful though, which we'll touch on just below in the form book, so hopefully they provide the palate cleanser we all need after Sunday.
FORM BOOK
Our current form can be slightly skewed depending on which side of the fence you sit. We Arsenal fans say we're unbeaten in five, while haters say we've won only once in our last three outings.
What is undeniable is our home form. We are unbeaten, having won five and drawn one of our six games, and in doing so boast the best home defence, conceding only two goals. It's our away form that is beginning to trend downwards, but that's a discussion for this weekend's trip to Villa.
Brentford has three wins and two losses in their last five, including victories over Liverpool and Newcastle. Both those wins came at home, as do most of their points.
Away from home, as mentioned, they are awful, with five defeats out of six. Their only away win came at a dreadful West Ham. On the road, they score at a rate of one goal per game (six)and concede exactly double (twelve). So a 2-1 home win could be likely, going by the math.
Against the 'bigger' sides, Andrews has gone for five at the back, which suits the attacking nature of full-backs Kayode and Henry. I can't see them doing anything different against us.
It will be the usual low-block and hope star man, Thiago, can conjure something out of nothing. Their other avenue for goals is from long throws. This season, they are tied with Crystal Palace for the most shots and goals (three) created from them, so we will have to be fully aware of that.
HISTORY BOOKS
Since entering the Premier League in 2021, we have met eight times, with us winning five, drawing two, and losing one. Our only loss came in our very first meeting during crazy COVID times, on a mad Friday night when we wanted the game postponed but got a big fat NO CHANCE from the powers that be (shocker). We went on to lose 2-0 with a lineup that included Flo Balogun up front, Pablo Mari, Lokonga, Chambers and Nelson.
At home, you have to go all the way back to 1938 for the last time Brentford won on our patch.
In the EPL era, we are two wins and two draws in our four meetings at The Carpet. We all remember the 2023 meeting when Toneys controversial "Human Error" by Lee Mason goal was allowed to stand because he 'forgot' to draw lines for Norgaard being offside. Fun times.
TRANSFER BUSINESS
Much teeth gnashing and wailing accompanied Brentford's summer transfer activity.
Selling arguably your two best players, who are responsible for most of your attacking output, never goes down well with fans, and neither should it. Mbuemo went to the red side of Manchester in a protracted sale that netted the Bees an initial £65m. That was followed by the sale of Wissa to Newcastle for a further £55m.
Their captain and influential midfielder, Norgaard, as we all know, joined us for £10m give or take. Their final sale of note was goalkeeper Flekken, who moved to Leverkusen for, again, £10m give or take.
As for incoming, they weren't shy in reinvesting. Wide man Ouattara arrived from Bournemouth for £42.5m. Young Dutch midfielder Milambo came from Feyenoord for £20m. They made full back Kayode's loan from Fiorentina a permanent one for £16.5m and solved their goalkeeping with the purchase of Liverpool standout back-up Kelleher for a snip at £12.5m.
They added experience and leadership through the free transfer of Jordan Henderson and brought in Reiss Nelson on loan from us to round off their business.
KEY MATCHUP
The key match-up is how our makeshift central defensive pairing copes with the on-fire striker Thiago (if fit), who arrived a year ago but missed pretty much all of last season with an injury. Brentford have 21 league goals so far, only bettered by us, Man City and Chelsea, and Thiago has eleven of them (five from the penalty spot). He is a powerful unit at 6ft. 3 and has set a Brentford record as the fastest player to reach ten league goals in a season. He has done it in thirteen appearances.
He is second in the Golden Boot race, only two behind Haaland. That tells you all you need to know about the kind of season he's having.
My worry, if I were a Brentford fan, would be what happens when his goal output starts to auto-correct? Where else are the goals coming from?
INJURY REPORT/SUSPENSIONS
For us, it looks like Trossard and Saliba are 'days away,' which we take to mean tomorrow is too soon, but hopefully they will be available for the trip to Villa at the weekend. Kai the Guy and Gabi at the Back are still weeks away (wtf is going on with Havertz?).
We are getting players back healthy, though, with Odegaard, Madueke, Gyokeres and Gabi J all returning to the squad in the last few games.
For them, the big sweat is on hyped-up star man Thiago, who limped off in injury time in their last game, but he is fully expected to be fit (yay). The other missing players are all long-term, with Carvalho and the recently signed Milambo both suffering ACL injuries. Josh Dasilva is another long-term casualty with knee ligament damage.
PROJECTED ELEVEN
The lineup is a hard one to guess. I look at us and think Timber desperately needs a rest, as does Zubimendi. Rice has run himself into the ground this last week and could do wth a breather. Saka has played pretty much nonstop since returning from injury. Calafiori is one booking away from missing Villa.
We've eventually gone for the lineup below.
We have made five changes. We think Mikel might use Brentford's awful away form as an opportunity to rest some legs and give other players some much-needed minutes.
White comes in for Timber to give the Dutchman a breather. MLS comes in for Calafiori, so he isn't risking missing Villa suspended. Norgaard comes in against his old club for Zubi. The risky one is removing Rice from the side, but I'd rather have him fresh for Villa than face Brentford. You have to rest him at some point; if not tomorrow, when? We facilitate his removal by swapping Merino to the eight and reinstating Gyokeres as the nine. Our final change brings back our Captain Odegaard. It's not because of Eze's performances, but because Odegaard needs valuable game time.
Please remember that Guess the Eleven is a bit of fun. There's no right or wrong to it. Nobody gets it remotely close all the time.
We'll see you all on Thursday for the recap, hopefully a no-nonsense, no injuries incurred, winning one.
Enjoy the game, LEGION.